Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season has arrived, and the Pickswise handicapping team is once again heading into the week in red-hot form. Last week, our team of experts went a PERFECT 7-0 on their NFL Best Bets'and now we’re back for more! We have 3 of our experts’ best bets for the Week 7 slate, so that’s 3 great bets, all in one place! Without further ado, let’s dive in and check them out.
Read our NFL picks for EVERY Week 7 matchup — we went 11-3 on spreads last week!
Jared Smith: Jaguars -3 over Giants (-110)
This will likely be one of the most contrarian favorites we see all season. The Giants have all the momentum at 5-1 facing a Jags team that has lost 3 in a row after a surprising 2-1 start. In fact, this will be just the 10th time in NFL history that a team with a winning percentage of .800 or higher is an underdog against a team with a winning percentage of .400 or lower at this stage of the season. The prior 9 times it's happened, the team favored with a significantly worse record won all 9 games and went 8-0-1 against the number. Yikes.
I've been asked this week why the sportsbooks keep offering tasty underdog prices on the Giants even though they keep winning outright, and the answer is all in the numbers. All of the metrics I look at every week, many of which get baked into oddsmaker power ratings, tell a story of mediocrity. The offense is 9th in EPA/play which is solid, but Daniel Jones is bottom 5 in air yards and has the fewest 20+ yard completions of any QB in the NFL. Credit Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka for generating just enough misdirection to keep this Giants offense moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.