The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-105) on Monday, July 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

This season, the Phillies are 63-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 46-52 ATS.

Phillies vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 10-4, 2.79 ERA
• Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 8-5, 4.14 ERA

Phillies vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.75 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 82 games (+22.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 84 games (+22.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 81 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 82 games (+13.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 83 games (+11.30 Units / 8% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+6.00 Units / 5% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 52-47 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 3.66% ROI).

• 63-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 4.79% ROI
• 44-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -10.54% ROI
• 50-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.39% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 46-52 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -5.48% ROI).

• 54-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.13% ROI
• 49-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI
• 45-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -8.55% ROI

Twins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Twins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Twins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Twins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (61/103) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (227/377) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .151 (8-for-53) against Ranger Suarez’s elevated fastball this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .209 — 89th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .181 (39 Total Bases / 215 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — 94th Percentile.

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (31/103) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.

Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .613 (46 Total Bases / 75 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .153 (24-for-157) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 98th Percentile.

Bailey Ober has a strikeout rate of 42% (48 SO in 113 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 86th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

  
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