The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Saturday, April 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Phillies are 5-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 9-4 ATS.

Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 67.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 games (+12.25 Units / 82% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+11.00 Units / 61% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.90 Units / 81% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 69% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 62% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.10 Units / 69% ROI)
• Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 62% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 39% ROI)

Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.20 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.65 Units / 74% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.15 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 5-9 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -36.29% ROI).

• 5-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -34.39% ROI
• 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -4.47% ROI
• 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -2.97% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 9-4 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 37.06% ROI).

• 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -18.18% ROI
• 8-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.7 Units / 19.15% ROI
• 5-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -26.21% ROI

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (17/103) against Matt Strahm since last season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.

Matt Strahm has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (70/136) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (36/103) against Matt Strahm since last season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.

51% of Matt Strahm’s fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone since last season — 14th highest among among 144 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 90th Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed batters are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft allowed a batting average of .360 vs right-handed batters (sixth worst)– seventh Percentile and just .045 vs left-handed batters this season (second best among qualified SPs)– 98th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft allowed a batting average of .360 vs right-handed batters (sixth worst)– seventh Percentile and just .045 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (second best among qualified SPs)– 98th Percentile.

  
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