The Philadelphia Phillies (-150) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Friday, April 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

This season, the Phillies are 4-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 9-3 ATS.

Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 62.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+11.30 Units / 106% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games (+11.15 Units / 81% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+9.60 Units / 56% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+10.10 Units / 83% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 81% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 60% ROI)
• Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.05 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.65 Units / 101% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.15 Units / 81% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 90% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-9 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -44.32% ROI).

• 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -43.1% ROI
• 6-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -11.68% ROI
• 7-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 4.63% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 9-3 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 48.96% ROI).

• 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -12.03% ROI
• 7-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 13.08% ROI
• 5-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -20.15% ROI

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 74% (17/23) against Taijuan Walker this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 54% (274/504) on sliders since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.

Hitters chased just 83 of Taijuan Walker’s 387 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.

Taijuan Walker had a strike rate of just 55% (260/476) on sliders in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 42% (18/43) against Connor Overton this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .409 (9-for-22) against Connor Overton’s non-fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.

Connor Overton struck out just 3% (1/30) of left-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

  
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