The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Phillies are 46-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 30-37 ATS.

Phillies vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 3-3, 2.61 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 3-4, 3.40 ERA

Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 away games (+20.00 Units / 105% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 35 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+16.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.75 Units / 43% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 games (+10.45 Units / 44% ROI)
• David Hamilton has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 51 games (+21.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 49 games (+20.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 50 games (+19.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 49 games (+18.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+16.60 Units / 29% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 67 games (+3.05 Units / 4% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 38-28 against the Run Line (+11.15 Units / 14.12% ROI).

• 46-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +16 Units / 14.55% ROI
• 27-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -15.91% ROI
• 35-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 6.96% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 30-37 against the Run Line (-13.1 Units / -14.43% ROI).

• 33-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -6.03% ROI
• 28-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -13.49% ROI
• 35-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 6.3% ROI

Red Sox vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (32/45) against Cristopher Sanchez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (50/79) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (125/201) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (75/122) against Cristopher Sanchez in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nick Pivetta has a strikeout rate of 61% (11 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .166 (458 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 99th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has struck out 48% (13/27) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .116 (13-for-112) against Nick Pivetta in late innings since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

  
Read Full Article