The 2023 MLB season's first edition of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN will see the Philadelphia Phillies try to avoid a season-opening sweep against the Texas Rangers. Read on for our top Phillies vs. Rangers predictions for Sunday Night Baseball based on the best MLB odds.
The Rangers have used their home-field advantage to start the 2023 season 2-0 with wins by scores of 11-7 and 16-3. Saturday's rout was powered by two home runs by Rangers catcher Mitch Garver.
Sunday night's matchup pits Phillies left-hander Bailey Falter against Rangers lefty Martin Perez. Falter pitched to a 3.86 ERA across 16 starts last season while Perez had a career-best 2.89 ERA spanning 32 starts in his first season with the Rangers.
Here is our best Phillies vs. Rangers pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Phillies vs. Rangers odds
Phillies vs. Rangers game info
- Date: Sunday, April 2, 7:08 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
- Weather: Indoors
Phillies vs. Rangers prediction
Turner's been one of the lone bright spots for the Phillies while they've been outscored 27-10 through two games.
The veteran shortstop is 3-for-9 with two (2!) triples, two runs scored and one batted in, and one walk against two strikeouts. Though his hard-hit percentage is down, he's hitting to the opposite field with a high fly-ball rate. More importantly for this prop bet, both of his strikeouts were against right-handed pitchers. That's been a theme for Turner, who's hit left-handed pitching better throughout his career, and with considerably better plate discipline.
On the flip side of this matchup, Perez benefited from reverse splits last season in which he struck out right-handed batters at a 21.0% rate. That went against his career norms, in which Perez has struck out just 15.2% of righty hitters compared to 19.5% of left-handers. Perez posted a career-best strikeout rate overall last year but that improved as the season went on. The veteran struck out 19.3% of batters in March and April vs. 22.9% in July and 24.2% in August.
Looking to the Texas bullpen, Rangers relievers collectively rank 20th in MLB with a 17.9% strikeout rate through two games. That matches their 2022 rank with a 22.9% K rate.
The relatively low game total of 8.5 with the Phillies as +105 moneyline underdogs suggests another low run output from Philadelphia, potentially limiting Turner's plate appearances and opportunities to whiff.
Phillies vs. Range rs best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 strikeouts | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| +160 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
As of Sunday morning, DraftKings is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering Over/Under strikeout props for batters in this game. Only five listed batters have higher odds than Turner on their Under with a line of 0.5.
Should other books release this prop closer to first pitch, be on the lookout for any price better than +160.
Phillies vs. Rangers odds analysis
The Phillies opened as 1.5-run underdogs across the board Saturday evening and after some fluctuation in the market overnight, that's where they've settled again as of Sunday morning. Similarly, the total opened at a consensus of 8.5 and hit a flat 9 for brief stretches before settling back to 8.5 Sunday morning.
Over 60% of the wagers are backing the Rangers and 57% of tickets are on the Over.
Phillies-Rangers pick made 4/2/2023 at 10 a.m. ET.
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