The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-105) on Friday, April 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Phillies are 16-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 14-14 ATS.

Phillies vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 3-1, 3.23 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-2, 5.87 ERA

Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Padres and all games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+14.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+11.75 Units / 47% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.80 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 13 games (+16.50 Units / 127% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 50% ROI)
• Joe Musgrove has hit the Earned Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 12-14 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -7.78% ROI).

• 16-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 4.96% ROI
• 10-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -23.08% ROI
• 15-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 13.64% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 14-14 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 7.74% ROI).

• 14-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -3.6% ROI
• 14-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• 13-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -8.16% ROI

Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (234/667) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 26 of 620 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .190 (112-for-588) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 96th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has struck out just 12% (8/66) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Joe Musgrove has a strikeout rate of just 34% (23 SO in 68 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 10th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.9 MPH against his fastballs since the 2022 season (289 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 90.6

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .394 (137 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .308 — fourth Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .405 (15-for-37) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
Read Full Article