The Philadelphia Phillies (+110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-130) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Phillies are 91-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 78-74 ATS.

Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 3-6, 6.35 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 10-6, 3.76 ERA

Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 54% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 away games (+11.80 Units / 82% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+11.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+16.50 Units / 275% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 60 games (+20.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+14.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+7.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 62 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 25 games (+35.50 Units / 142% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+25.00 Units / 100% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 93 games (+20.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 94 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+12.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 75-77 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -2.45% ROI).

• 91-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 1.13% ROI
• 70-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -7.87% ROI
• 75-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -1.44% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 78-74 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.01% ROI).

• 84-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.76% ROI
• 75-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -1.32% ROI
• 70-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -6.92% ROI

Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Taijuan Walker has allowed an OPS of .929 (350 PA’s) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .709 — first Percentile.

Taijuan Walker has a strikeout rate of just 6% (2 SO in 35 PAs) this month (3 games) — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of .557 (175 Total Bases / 314 ABs) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 137 of Taijuan Walker’s 594 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Severino has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (413/555) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Severino has walked 29 of 347 right-handed batters (8%) this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 16th Percentile.

Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of .319 (257 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 16th Percentile.

Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of just .294 (70 Total Bases / 238 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 91st Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

  
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