Two struggling NL East clubs begin a three-game series in New York on Tuesday, with the Mets hosting the Philadelphia Phillies. Let's dive into the matchup with our Phillies-Mets pick based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting sites.
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are rarely forgettable, but that's the status of each club as the second month of the 2023 season draws to a close.
Each team has produced a middling record, with the Phillies at 25-28 and the Mets 27-27. We're now past Memorial Day, so it's unofficially acceptable to look at the standings seriously. The Mets and Phillies are five and 6.5 games back, respectively, of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves.
It's time to begin a push before the midseason mark comes and that gap has widened considerably. But given who's on the mou nd, Tuesday might not be the night for the Phillies.
Here is our best Phillies-Mets pick (odds via Caesars; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Phillies vs. Mets pick
It's been a struggle for Ranger Suarez since returning from an elbow strain. He's been on the mound for a not-so-good time and also not a long time in each outing, which is forever an unwanted combination. That's surely part of why Ballpark Pal projects Suarez to allow 2.7 runs on Tuesday.
Suarez has surrendered three-plus earned runs in each of his three outings, topping out at five across five innings during his last start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. That stretch also includes four runs coughed up to the Chicago Cubs over a mere two innings, and three to the Colorado Rockies over four fr ames. Neither club is an offensive beast, and especially not the 16th-ranked Cubs.
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The Mets aren't either while tied with the Cubs on 243 runs. But they do boast a lineup capable of pouncing on a slumping lefty. Pete Alonso has notched multi-hit games in three of his last five outings, and the MLB home run leader has recorded a .985 OPS against southpaws so far in 2023. Francisco Lindor's .835 OPS against lefties also shows his effectiveness.
The most significant weapon to cash the Over here will likely be Mets table-setter Brandon Nimmo. The team's leadoff hitter has also been productive against lefties with his .923 OPS and sky-high .430 on-base percentage. Nimmo walks often and is patient with quality plate dis cipline, which shows up with a chase rate that ranks in the 95th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
The pieces are here for the Mets to capitalize on a pitcher who's still seeking his form and making just his fourth start after an extended absence.
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Phillies vs. Mets best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | N/A | N/A | Over 2.5 | N/A |
| +100 | N/A | N/A | +102 | N/A |
Only two of our best sports betting apps offer this prop, with Caesars giving the slight edge over DraftKings.
If you're feeling more aggressive and want to fade Suarez further after he's given up an expected slugging percentage of .416 in 2023, look to the total bases props. Nimmo (+125 via DraftKings), Lindor (+140 via DraftKings), and Alonso (+135 via FanDuel) are all getting appealing odds for Over 1.5 bases.
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Phillies vs. Mets odds
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Phillies vs. Mets odds analysis
The Mets are the favorites at our best live betting sites while generally getting a price of around -130. That's where the line opene d, and it can now be found as short as -140 through PointsBet. The best current destination for Mets backers is DraftKings with its -130 odds. Those wanting to support the underdog Phillies should head to BetMGM, Caesars, or PointsBet for the +115 price.
Meanwhile, the total has remained steady after opening at 8.5. FanDuel is offering easily the best price on the Over at -104. On the other side, three of our best sportsbooks are featuring the Under at +100.
Phillies vs. Mets game info
- Date: Tuesday, May 30, 7:10 p.m. ET
- TV: MLB.TV
- Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
- Weather: 63 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation with 11-mph southeasterly winds.
Phillies-Mets pick made 5/30/2023 at 10:50 a.m. ET.
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