The Philadelphia Phillies (-250) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+200) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.

This season, the Phillies are 83-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 65-74 ATS.

Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 11-6, 3.04 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Adam Oller 1-1, 3.31 ERA

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 77.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 away games (+12.70 Units / 60% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 44 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+11.00 Units / 122% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 47 games (+32.80 Units / 70% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+20.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+19.15 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+18.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 44 games (+18.05 Units / 27% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 68 of their last 124 games (+6.70 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 away games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 71 games at home (+28.35 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 47 games (+18.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 44 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 69-70 against the Run Line (-3.2 Units / -1.89% ROI).

• 83-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 1.07% ROI
• 64-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.35 Units / -8.06% ROI
• 69-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.15% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 65-74 against the Run Line (-29.46 Units / -16.2% ROI).

• 52-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -11.66% ROI
• 75-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.75 Units / 7.65% ROI
• 58-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.4 Units / -15.36% ROI

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (134/232) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (232/388) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

25 of Ranger Suarez’s 100 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (987/1,830) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adam Oller has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .312 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .150 (6-for-40) against Adam Oller over the last 14 days — 5th best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 91st Percentile.

Adam Oller has not walked any of the 18 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Adam Oller has a strike rate of just 59% (110/185) in his last two starts — 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

  
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