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The Philadelphia Phillies look for revenge on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers following Monday's loss, in a showdown between two of the best teams in baseball.
We're looking at one of the premier games in MLB with our Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction, as Los Angeles enters Tuesday a half-game behind the Phillies for the National League's best record.
Betway has this game as a pick'em with Philadelphia and Los Angeles each given -110 moneyline odds.
First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday night.
Phillies vs. Dodgers player props
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Clayton Kershaw Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105 via Betway) ????
- Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases (+110 via Betway) ???
- Will Smith Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 via Betway) ???
Phillies vs. Dodgers expert picks
MLB picks made Tuesday at 7:20 a.m. ET.
I may be backing Kershaw's strikeout prop at exactly the worst time from a value standpoint, as he is coming off the first start of his career with zero Ks.
However, things don't get any easier when facing the Phillies, who have hit left-handed pitching better all season. Philadelphia has slashed .268/.344/.446 against southpaws and .248/.317/.406 against right-handed pitchers, and it ranks in the top 10 of the lowest strikeout rates against southpaws in road games since the start of July.
Kershaw has not recorded more than 12 outs in either of his two starts this season, which lowers his strikeout potential considerably.
Another short outing would suggest that this wager should have much better than a 50/50 chance of cashing, so I am happy to back it at +105 odds, with $10 returning $10.50 in profit.
Best odds: +105 via Betway | Implied probability: 48.78%
Bohm enters this contest with a 23-game on-base streak, the longest active one in the majors. In that span, 12 of his 25 hits have gone for extra bases, and considering his 39 doubles are four more than any other player in the majors, Bohm is as good a bet as any to go Over this projected total with one swing of the bat.
Kershaw has also been burned by right-handed batters in limited action this year, allowing a .333/.382/.533 slash line, and three of the 10 hits have gone for extra bases.
If Bohm were to record two or more total bases, a $10 wager would pay out $21.
Best odds: +110 via Betway | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Phillies southpaw Sanchez was very deserving of his first All-Star Game nod this year, but he has been a much more effective pitcher at home than on the road. Sanchez sports a 5.23 ERA and a .315 OBA in nine road starts this year, and though he leads the majors in HR/9 rate (0.3), Dodgers hitters can still do plenty of damage in other ways.
Smith leads all Dodgers hitters with a .992 OPS against southpaws, and he averages an RBI every 5.6 at-bats against lefties compared to one every 6.4 at-bats against right-handed pitchers. Smith has just one RBI in the last 10 games, but considering that before July 5 he didn't record an RBI in more than five consecutive games, I agree with the optimism of the 37.74% implied probability for this wager.
If Smith drives in at least one run, this would be the biggest payout of all three player prop wagers for the day, turning $10 into $26.50.
Best odds: +165 via Betway | Implied probability: 37.74%
Phillies vs. Dodgers odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, Aug. 6
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
- How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Spectrum SportsNet LA
- Favorite: Pick'em (via Betway)
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