The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) on Sunday, August 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Phillies are 69-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 60-58 ATS.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 8-7, 3.23 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 2-0, 2.19 ERA
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 46 games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+12.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 away games (+11.75 Units / 65% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+42.70 Units / 213% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+18.85 Units / 90% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+18.05 Units / 75% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 37 games (+16.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 games (+14.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 60 of their last 102 games (+14.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 100 games (+12.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 100 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 46 away games (+4.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 62 games (+18.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 61 games (+17.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 59-58 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -0.88% ROI).
- 69-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.51% ROI
- 54-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -8.04% ROI
- 58-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -1.25% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 60-58 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -2.42% ROI).
- 65-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 5.57% ROI
- 64-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 5.62% ROI
- 51-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.15 Units / -14.85% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Bell (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Bell (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 50% (294/590) against Cristopher Sanchez with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed a slugging percentage of .597 (40 Total Bases / 67 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .349 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (231/392) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (96/156) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (258/421) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (143/226) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 433 of Merrill Kelly’s 943 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 38% (128/336) against Merrill Kelly with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.