The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+165) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Phillies vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 83-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 77-78 ATS.
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 51 away games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 62 away games (+12.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 49 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| David Bote | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-77 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -1.81% ROI).
- 83-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -0.58% ROI
- 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -0.65% ROI
- 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -7.55% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-78 against the Run Line (-13.25 Units / -6.66% ROI).
- 69-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -4.57% ROI
- 63-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.95 Units / -14.62% ROI
- 80-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.05 Units / 6.46% ROI
Ranger Suarez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (20/158) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.4 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (111 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 89.6
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (23/168) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .221 (69 Total Bases / 312 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .4 17 — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javier Assad has allowed 5 stolen bases this month (5 games) — tied for most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad has walked 11 of 84 batters (13%) this month (5 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Javier Assad has walked 7 of 44 left-handed batters (16%) this month (5 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.