The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+110) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.

This season, the Phillies are 57-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 40-47 ATS.

Phillies vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 6-3, 2.35 ERA
• Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 4-4, 3.03 ERA

Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 71 games (+23.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 69 games (+22.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 68 games (+18.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 70 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 69 games (+15.25 Units / 18% ROI)

Cubs Best Bets Today:

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+15.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+12.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.75 Units / 8% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 47-39 against the Run Line (+7.65 Units / 7.37% ROI).

• 57-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +13 Units / 9.03% ROI
• 38-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -10.15% ROI
• 43-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 1.17% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 40-47 against the Run Line (-17.65 Units / -14.49% ROI).

• 39-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -10.2% ROI
• 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -12.97% ROI
• 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 4.48% ROI

Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (166/273) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of just .118 (51 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (157/248) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jameson Taillon has allowed an OPS of just .182 (23 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .728 — 97th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .091 (2-for-22) against Jameson Taillon — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .247 — 96th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 13 of 491 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 23 of 899 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

  
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