The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

This season, the Phillies are 91-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 79-72 ATS.

Phillies vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 12-8, 3.65 ERA
• Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 11-8, 3.77 ERA

Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.45 Units / 54% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+12.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+12.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 46 games (+28.40 Units / 62% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+21.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+16.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Freddy Peralta has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 21% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+19.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 92 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 away games (+6.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)

Brewers Best Bets Today:

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 69% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 147 games (+11.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 151 games (+11.65 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games at home (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 74-77 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -3.02% ROI).

• 91-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 1.59% ROI
• 70-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -7.26% ROI
• 74-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -2.05% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-72 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 1.53% ROI).

• 87-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.65 Units / 6.02% ROI
• 78-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.6 Units / 5.81% ROI
• 63-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -23 Units / -13.76% ROI

Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (523/1,610) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 189 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (189/546) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 44 of 835 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has 116 three-pitch strikeouts since the 2022 season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (552/945) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 61% (858/1,404) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fifth Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 57% (166/291) this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has allowed an OPS of 1.455 (28 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .650 — first Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

  
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