The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+100) on Monday, September 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

This season, the Phillies are 90-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 78-71 ATS.

Phillies vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 12-6, 3.08 ERA
• Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 6-8, 4.58 ERA

Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.70 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 49 games (+33.40 Units / 68% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+22.30 Units / 41% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+16.70 Units / 48% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Walks Over in 23 of his last 42 games (+15.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+17.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 90 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 away games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.25 Units / 38% ROI)

Brewers Best Bets Today:

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 145 games (+13.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 86 of their last 149 games (+11.65 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games at home (+10.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games at home (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 83 of their last 149 games (+7.49 Units / 4% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 73-76 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -3.17% ROI).

• 90-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 1.65% ROI
• 70-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -6.63% ROI
• 73-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -2.69% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 78-71 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 1.76% ROI).

• 86-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.65 Units / 6.09% ROI
• 78-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.8 Units / 6.63% ROI
• 62-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -24 Units / -14.55% ROI

Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (608/1,155) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (141/246) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (239/402) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Right-handed batters batted .500 (9-for-18) against Ranger Suarez in his last start — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .209 — second Percentile.

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 30 ABsending on a two-strike cutter from Aaron Civale. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .132 (10 GB hits out of 76 GBs) against Aaron Civale with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 99th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since last season is 383.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 398.5

The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

  
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