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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves each vie for an important series win today after splitting the first two games of their three-game series.
Thursday's game is set to get underway at 7:15 p.m. ET from Truist Park and is the first of five meetings in the next 11 days between these NL East rivals.
The Braves are as short as -115 moneyline favorites at two of our best sports betting sites. After two pitchers' duels in the first pair of games of this series, naturally, we're looking at a pitcher prop in our Phillies vs. Braves prediction.
I'm coming off a 2-1 day from Tuesday's Phillies vs. Braves best bets, from which I profited $7 on three $10 wagers.
Phillies vs. Braves prediction
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
The Braves' pitching staff has done a masterful job of limiting Philadelphia's high-powered offense this series, holding the Phillies to four combined runs and one hit in eight at-bats with runners in scoring position.
But Atlanta is going to go only so far the remainder of the regular season and possibly the playoffs with three castoffs (Gio Urshela from Detroit, Ramon Laureano from Cleveland, Whit Merrifield from Philadelphia) in its everyday lineup.
Atlanta's 23-13 record (the second-best in the NL) against left-handed starting pitchers is baked into this line, as is the fact that Philadelphia is 2-5 in Cristopher Sanchez's last seven starts.
Still, I am not passing up backing the Phillies at these long odds, especially after Wednesday's comeback victory from down two runs after five innings.
Philadelphia has as high as a 52.38% implied probability to win, so FanDuel is our choice of best sports betting apps, with a $10 wager paying out $19.62.
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%
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Phillies vs. Braves player props
MLB picks made Thursday at 7:20 a.m. ET.
Most trends suggest that Sanchez is in for a high-strikeout total, as he has a career 10.1 K/9 rate when pitching on four days' rest. In addition, he is facing a Braves lineup that has struck out at the fifth-highest rate (27.9%) since the start of August.
However, Sanchez is coming off his second complete game of the season with 99 pitches (his most in 10 starts), which has me doubting his ability to rack up the punch-outs.
After all, in the start after his other complete game this season, he was shelled for seven runs over four innings while striking out just three batters.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering better than +100 odds to back the Under. Compared to Caesars' -109 odds, a $10 winning wager returns $1.23 more in profits ($20.40 versus $19.17).
Best odds: +104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.02%
Ozuna ranks first in the NL in batting average, second in home runs (two behind Shohei Ohtani), and first in RBIs, making him a real threat to be the first Triple Crown winner from the NL since Joe Medwick in 1937. Ozuna is also three home runs shy of becoming the first Braves player with consecutive 40-homerseasons since 2005-06.
This is a three-star play, as Ozuna's batting average is 20 points higher against southpaws than right-handed pitchers, and he is as capable as any hitter in the sport of cashing this Over with one swing of the bat.
The hits/runs/RBIs prop is unique to certain best live betting sites. DraftKings and BetMGM offer -135 odds to back Ozuna to combine for two-plus hits/runs/RBIs, but bet365 has the best odds at -130. A winning $10 wager would pay out $17.69.
Best odds: -130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 56.52%
Phillies vs. Braves odds & game info
- When: Thursday, Aug. 22
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
- How to watch: FOX
- Favorite: Braves (-115 via bet365)
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