The Philadelphia Phillies (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Atlanta for Game 1 of the NL Division Series.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 89-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 83-79 ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 48 away games (+20.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 48 away games (+15.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 80 games (+13.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+12.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+11.55 Units / 82% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 79 of his last 111 games (+22.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 58 games at home (+17.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 70 games (+14.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 84 of his last 150 games (+14.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+13.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 54 away games (+23.28 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 114 games (+12.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 away games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 113 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 45% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 136 games (+27.92 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 78 of their last 112 games (+25.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games at home (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 84-80 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 0.3% ROI).

• 89-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -0.46% ROI
• 82-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.83% ROI
• 76-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -7.29% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-79 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -2.7% ROI).

• 101-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 4.67% ROI
• 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -0.97% ROI
• 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -7.84% ROI

Ranger Suarez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (655/1,217) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.188 (19 Total Bases / 16 ABs) this month (1 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .378 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (98/156) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .347 (41 Total Bases / 118 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .578 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .189 (25 Total Bases / 132 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (180 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .186 (64 Total Bases / 345 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (201 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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