The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Phillies are 57-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 39-46 ATS.

Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 9-4, 3.46 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 7-3, 2.90 ERA

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 72 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 70 games (+21.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 69 games (+19.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 71 games (+15.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+13.90 Units / 16% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 71 games (+28.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.14 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+2.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 13 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 47-40 against the Run Line (+6.65 Units / 6.35% ROI).

• 57-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.7 Units / 8.05% ROI
• 39-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.65 Units / -9% ROI
• 43-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 39-46 against the Run Line (-7.2 Units / -7.37% ROI).

• 47-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.8 Units / -9.44% ROI
• 29-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.4 Units / -29.54% ROI
• 52-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.15 Units / 21.36% ROI

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (308/865) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .193 (133-for-688) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 95th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (103/300) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (437/1,364) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (65/97) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .370 (135 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .645 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 84.7 MPH (229 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.8 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (193/441) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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