The Philadelphia Phillies (+165) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 87-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 85-75 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 58 away games (+20.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 56 away games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 62 away games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 76 games at home (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- No trends found
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+5.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 81-79 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -0.89% ROI).
- 87-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -0.47% ROI
- 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -0.76% ROI
- 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -7.46% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 85-75 against the Run Line (+11 Units / 5.81% ROI).
- 104-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.3 Units / 4.73% ROI
- 59-91 when betting on the total runs Over for -39.8 Units / -22.73% ROI
- 91-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +25.3 Units / 14.26% ROI
Ranger Suarez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (95/151) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (23/167) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (645/1,204) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (420/732) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .231 (649 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .277 (169 Total Bases / 610 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .277 (169 Total Bases / 610 ABs) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has walked 28 of 650 batters (4%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.