The Philadelphia Phillies (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 13-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 15-10 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+14.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+15.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+10.55 Units / 75% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.70 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 10-16 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -30.78% ROI).
- 13-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -10.55% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -11.98% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 3.51% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 15-10 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 10.01% ROI).
- 14-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -8.06% ROI
- 15-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.05 Units / 18.3% ROI
- 9-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.4 Units / -27.01% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (29/87) against Aaron Nola this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (14/84) against Aaron Nola this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .632 (12 Total Bases / 19 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .388 — fourth Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .706 (12 Total Bases / 17 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — eighth Percentile.