Phillies-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Sunday, May 28

Old NL East rivals will go at it one more time this weekend as the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves wrap up their four-game set on Sunday night. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. It'll be a bit of a lopsided matchup on the mound, as recently acquired journeyman Dylan Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA) will make a spot start for the Phils against Braves ace Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.97).

Atlanta enters as the heavy -255 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Phillies are +215 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Phillies

Out: RP Jose Alvarado (elbow), OF Cristian Pache (knee), 1B Darick Hall (thumb), 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee), C Rafael Marchan (wrist), SP Noah Song (back)

Braves

Out: RP Michael Tonkin (neck), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder), SP Max Fried (forearm), 3B Ehire Adrianza (elbow), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), SP Kolby Allard (oblique), RP Tyler Matzek (elbow), SP Huascar Ynoa (elbow)

Dylan Covey vs. Spencer Strider

Scooped up off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers just last weekend, Covey impressed in his Phillies debut, serving as the bulk man against the Arizona Diamondbacks and firing five innings of one-run ball while striking out six. That outing looks like a bit of fool's gold, though: Covey posted a 6.57 ERA over parts of four seasons from 2017 to 2020, then washed out of the Majors and wound up in the Chinese Professional Baseball League. Kudos to him for working his way back to the bigs, but unless he can continue to have elite command over the long haul, he'll likely come back to Earth soon.

Strider, meanwhile, has fallen back a bit after pitching out of his mind in April. The righty has allowed four runs twice so far this month, and while the strikeouts are still coming in bunches – 48 over his last five starts – he's been victimized a bit by the home run ball. Most of those homers have come off his four-seam fastball, which he hasn't located quite as well as we saw last year, but this is just picking nits; even this version of Strider is among the best pitchers in baseball.

It's hard to see Strider allowing more than two or three runs, if that, which puts a lot of pressure on Atlanta's offense to cover this total. The Braves certainly have the talent, but their lineup has been slumping a bit lately, and I think Covey does just enough to keep them in check.

Pick: Under 9

Even at extreme odds like this, it's impossible to pick against Strider. Even if the Phils run into a homer or two, the margin for error with Covey on the mound is just way too small.

Pick: Braves

  
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