Phillies-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, May 27

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves renew their rivalry once again, with the third game of this four-game set getting started at 4:05 p.m. ET from Truist Park. It'll be a matchup of righty aces on the mound, as Zack Wheeler (3-4, 4.11 ERA) looks to shake off an uncharacteristically slow start for the Phils while the Braves start veteran Charlie Morton (5-4, 3.61).

The Braves enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Philly a narrow +110 underdog. The run total is set at 8.5.

Phillies

Out: RP Jose Alvarado (elbow), OF Cristian Pache (knee), 1B Darick Hall (thumb), 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee), C Rafael Marchan (wrist), SP Noah Song (back)

Braves

Out: RP Michael Tonkin (neck), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder), SP Max Fried (forearm), 3B Ehire Adrianza (elbow), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), SP Kolby Allard (oblique), RP Tyler Matzek (elbow), SP Huascar Ynoa (elbow)

Zack Wheeler vs. Charlie Morton

Wheeler's underlying stats suggest that he's basically the same pitcher who put up a 2.82 ERA from 2020-2022, with a K rate, walk rate, whiff rate and hard-hit rate all well above league average. The righty's .327 BABIP and 65.8% are both sure to regress back to the mean at some point soon, and when they do, he should start producing like we're used to. Wheeler is coming off a rough outing last time out, allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits over six innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Morton had been terrific all year for the Braves but was knocked around last time out, giving up six runs on seven hits and two walks in five innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. There are some warning signs for the 39-year-old, as both his four-seamer and sinker have been knocked around – forcing him to rely on his curveball nearly half the time. The hook has always been the key to Morton's success – and it's still producing a whiff rate north of 40 percent – but if he's catching too much of the plate with his fastballs it won't matter much.

Wheeler and Morton are both big names with impressive track records, but the former has been snake-bitten all year while the latter appears to be coming back to Earth a bit. Seven of Philly's last 10 games have cleared this number, and each team just needs to scratch across a few for this over to cash.

Pick: Over 8.5

This feels like two starting pitchers trending in the opposite directions, as Wheeler is due for some positive regression to match his outstanding stuff while Morton has been dodging bullets a bit so far this year. Atlanta's lineup is scary, but they've been beatable lately, and at plus odds I'll take the better starter every time.

Pick: Phillies

  
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