The PGA Tour rolls on with the Farmers Insurance Open at legendary Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California on Wednesday, January 25. Jon Rahm is a significant +450 favorite to win this event, but is he worth playing at those odds? Find out with our expert picks for a tournament that also includes Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa. Also, make sure you come to Dimers all golf season, as we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year.
We will note that Rahm has won each of the two tournaments he has played since the start of 2023. And over those two events, the star shot a combined -54. What he has done is undeniably historic, so we understand why he's priced the way he is. And our model gives him the best chance of anyone to win this tournament. Still, it's hard to justify playing somebody at his price.
RELATED: Check out our Dimers golf player rankings
PGA Tour Win Probabilities
Look for the ?? below, as that indicates a spot where the predictive analytics model has found value against the sportsbooks. To make things easy for you, we even list the best PGA Golf bets for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, down below.
| PLAYER | WIN | TOP 5 | TOP 10 |
| Jon Rahm | 14.0% | 40.4% | 55.8% |
| Tony Finau | 11.9% | 34.9% | 50.3% |
| Xander Schauffele | 10.7% | 35.5% | 50.8% |
| Will Zalatoris | 5.7% | 23.0% | 37.8% |
| Collin Morikawa | 5.0% | 19.7% | 32.0% |
| Justin Thomas | 4.9% | 21.1% | 34.7% |
| Sungjae Im | 3.9% | 16.9% | 30.5% |
| Max Homa | 3.7% | 18.1% | 30.5% |
| Maverick McNealy | 2.5% | 12.9% | 23.6% |
| Adam Hadwin | 1.8% | 8.9% | 17.2% |