The middleweight title hangs in the balance on Saturday night when former champion Israel Adesanya slings leather with current kingpin Alex Pereira in the main event of UFC 287. Here our Pereira vs. Adesanya UFC picks based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Pereira is Adesanya's personal boogeyman.
The two have squared off three times in combat sports – twice in kickboxing and once in MMA – and Pereira has emerged victorious all three times. It finally looked as though Adesanya was about to exorcise his demons and best “Poatan” in the main event of UFC 281, but alas, it was not meant to be. “Stylebender” was no doubt ahead on the scorecards, and almost violently polished off Pereira in the closing moments of the opening stanza. Unfortunately for Adesanya, Pereira possesses the great equalizer: an explosive, world-destroying left hand.
Mi dway through the fifth round, Pereira staggered Adesanya with a thundering left hook and continued to land bombs until referee Marc Goddard mercifully stepped in to stop the carnage. It signaled Adesanya's first loss at 185-pounds, and his longtime rival's ascension to the top of the division. Pereira had followed Adesanya from kickboxing to the UFC and viciously ended his championship reign.
Will Pereira continue to loom large in Adesanya's nightmares? Or will “Stylebender” finally conquer Pereira and regain his spot atop the division?
Here are our best UFC bets for Adesanya vs. Pereira at UFC 287 (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Adesanya vs. Pereira pick
All it takes is one punch. Adesanya is a more well-rounded fighter with superior technical striking, but he has to be close to perfect fo r 25 minutes. That's essentially a lifetime when someone who possesses prodigious power is poised to detonate a bomb on your chin.
Sometimes in sports someone just has your number, and I think Pereira is Adesanya's huckleberry. I like Adesanya's chances against essentially any other 185-pounder thrown his way, but I just don't envision him getting it done against Pereira.
Sure, I could quote all of the statistics from the previous fight, but I don't think they matter. Surprisingly, Pereira landed more significant strikes, but even that doesn't necessarily matter. What matters is that jaw-melting left hand, and the fact that Adesanya might be forced to avoid that for 25 minutes. I just don't think he can.
As for the bet, there's definitely more value in backing Pereira to win by KO/TKO, since I don't see him winning any other way. If the bout is so mehow able to see the judges' scorecards, Adesanya is more likely to have his hand raised, but if the bout is halted amid a tornado of ultraviolence, it's because Pereira's left hand did its job.
Adesanya vs. Pereira best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ | Pereira by KO/TKO | Pereira by KO/TKO | Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ | Pereira by KO/TKO |
| +200 | +210 | +200 | +190 | +230 |
Despite winning all of their previous matchups in combat sports, Pereira opened as a +130 underdog, with that line moving to around +115 depending on the sportsbook. As I mentioned earlier, there's tremendous value in backing him via KO/TKO, as that's his most-likely path to victory.
You can snatch up Pereira by KO/TKO at +230 over with PointsBet.
Adesanya vs. Pereira fight info
Date: April 8, 2023, 9 p.m. ET
TV: PPV
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami FLA
Adesanya-Pereira pick made 04/07/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET
Not intended for use in MA
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