The Penn State Nittany Lions will face the Purdue Boilermakers on Selection Sunday for a Big Ten title. Read on for our Penn State vs. Purdue college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.
To help set the stage for Selection Sunday, the Big Ten championship game will pit Penn State against Purdue at United Center in Chicago. It is certainly not a surprise that the top-seeded Boilermakers (28-5) made it to the championship game after winning the regular-season conference title by three games.
Penn State, on the other hand, had to win three games in as many days. As the No. 10 seed in this tourney, PSU (22-12) has pulled off an upset in all three contests against Illinois (No. 7), Northwestern (No. 2), and Indiana (No. 3) to reach the title game. Can the Nittany Lions finish this magical run by knocking off the top team?
Here is our be st Penn State vs. Purdue college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Penn State vs. Purdue odds
Penn State vs. Purdue prediction
The Nittany Lions have no shot at pulling off another upset without a prolific performance from Pickett, who is one of the best guards in the country and a big reason why this program will be dancing for the first time since 2011. Pickett is coming off a 28-point performance against Indiana, and is certainly capable of scorching the nets once again.
But I prefer to stay away from his scoring prop, which now sits at 19.5 points after being priced around 18.5 on Saturday. Pickett has scored 20-plus points only once in this tournament, and Purdue held him to just 12 points in the last head-to-head meeting on Feb. 1.
Instead, Pickett's rebounding prop of 5.5 stood out to me as being a bit low. Pickett is averaging 7.4 rebounds per contest for the se ason and cleared this mark in six consecutive games. He collected at least eight rebounds in all three Big Ten tourney games to this point.
Led by a 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, who is widely expected to win National Player of the Year, Purdue is expectedly dominant on the glass. The Boilermakers rank third in the country in offensive rebound rate and 14th in defensive rebound rate, according to KenPom.
Still, I expect Pickett to have enough chances to eventually clear this low mark during Sunday's title game. Pickett grabbed 14 combined rebounds in his two regular-season meetings with Purdue, meaning six feels very attainable with a title on the line.
Penn State vs. Purdue best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 rebounds | N/A | N/A | Over 5.5 rebounds | N/A |
| -110 | N/A | N/A | -115 | N/A |
Of our five best March Madness betting sites, only DraftKings and Caesars currently have player props available for the Big Ten championship game. FanDuel usually releases player props closer to tipoff, so feel free to check their prices before placing this bet.
DraftKings is offering standard -110 odds on the Over and -120 vig on the Under. We disagree with that pricing and would be willing to take the Over at -125 or better on 5.5 rebounds. Stay away from this prop entirely if the line jumps up to 6.5 rebounds.
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Penn State vs. Purdue odds analysis
Purdue opened as a 6.5-point favorite before the market pushed the line up to 7.5 and as high as 8 at some shops. KenPom projects a 73-67 win for the Boilermakers, but I would need the spread to be 8.5 before I consider jumping on the underdog.
As for the total, this line hasn't really moved much after opening at 134. The consensus total is set at 134.5, with FanDuel offering the best price on the Under at -105 juice.
Entering Sunday's matchup, Penn State is 19-13-2 against the spread and 20-13-1 to the Over. Purdue is 13-18-2 ATS and 17-15-1 to the Under.
Penn State vs. Purdue game info
- Date: Sunday, March 12, 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
Penn State-Purdue pick made 03/12/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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