The New England Patriots (6-4) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Minneapolis on Thanksgiving.
The Vikings are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Patriots vs. Vikings Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Vikings Prediction for Week 12
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this Week 12 game with 65.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread this Week 12 with 58.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Vikings, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alexander Mattison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- Irv Smith has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 games (+4.45 Units / 102% ROI)
- Alexander Mattison has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- K.J. Osborn has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alexander Mattison has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets for Week 12:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 77% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 65% ROI)
Vikings Best Bets for Week 12:
- The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 6-3 (+2.8 Units / 26.17% ROI).
- Patriots are 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -4.5% ROI
- Patriots are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Patriots are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI
Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 4-5 (-1.6 Units / -14.35% ROI).
- Vikings are 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 40% ROI
- Vikings are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Vikings are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings
The Patriots are undefeated (4-0) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .558.
The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .358.
The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .588.
The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.
Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Vikings are 8-1 (.889) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — third-best in NFL. The Patriots have turned the ball over 19 times this season — tied for most in NFL.
The Vikings are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .580.