Thursday Night Football features the two NFL teams with the most wins this century as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots, and we have you covered with our Patriots vs. Steelers predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Last week, the New England Patriots fell to a 2-10 record after their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers – their second shutout loss this season amid their worst start since 1993.
It's also the first time in franchise history that the Patriots have been shut out twice at home, and Sunday's loss marked the first home defeat to the Chargers since 2005 and the first five-game losing streak under head coach Bill Belichick.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) suffered one of the worst games in the Mike Tomlin era, falling 24-10 to the previously 2-10 Arizona Cardinals. This season, they have experienced four double-digit losses, placi ng them among four 7-5 AFC teams occupying No. 5 through No. 8 seeds in the conference playoff standings.
Here is our best Patriots vs. Steelers prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patriots vs. Steelers prediction: Thursday Night Football
Not only do the Patriots have the worst record in the AFC, but their 2-10 ATS record is the worst in the league, and they are now tied for the most ATS losses in the Belichick era (the 2010 Patriots went 6-10 ATS).
However, instead of backing the Steelers to cover on Thursday night, our focus is on the Under, considering that New England has made history of the wrong kind with its offensive ineptitude.
The Patriots are the first team in the Super Bowl era to lose three consecutive games while allowing 10 or fewer points in each, and another such loss this week would tie the 1938 Chicago Cardinals for the most all-time. New England's 6-0 loss last week was especially historic since it was Los Angeles's first franchise win when scoring six or fewer points.
Meanwhile, Arizona's defense entered last week ranked 31st in scoring (26.8 points per game allowed) and had allowed an average of 174 rushing yards per game over the previous three weeks. However, the Cardinals' 10 points allowed to Pittsburgh was their fewest since 2021, and the Steelers ran for just 130 yards and have been outgained in 10 of 12 games this season.
Despite the low total, this is still a three-star play, as New England only allowed six points to the Chargers while Los Angeles crossed midfield on six possessions, and Pittsburgh is just 2-for-8 in its last eight red zone trips.
In addition, Steelers starting quarterback Kenny Pickett left last week's game with an ankle injury, and Pittsburgh's offensive ceiling is lowered, considering it has not topped 16 points in three consecutive weeks. The low total does not deter us, as games with O/Us of 37 or fewer are 23-5-1 to the Under since 2020.
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Patriots vs. Steelers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31 | 31 |
| Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
As Under backers on a projected total this low, we need every point we can get, so DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager, as the only sportsbook offering an O/U as high as 32.
Those looking to wager on this game in a different capacity may be intrigued by the Under in the first 30 minutes, as first-half Unders are 25-20-1 on Thursday Night Football since 2021. If you go that route, shop at our best sports betting apps to get the best price.
Patriots vs. Steelers odds for Thursday Night Football
Patriots vs. Steelers odds analysis
Even though this projected total opened at one of the lowest of the entire season, any movement to this point has gone towards the Under, as FanDuel has gone from 32.5 to 31.5 overnight, Caesars from 32 to 31, and DraftKings from 33 to 32 overnight. The early betting splits a t our best sports betting sites are aligned with this movement, as 60% of the wagers are on the Under.
Caesars differs widely from the rest of the top sportsbooks regarding its point spread offering, as it is the only shop at Steelers -5.5 while the rest are in unison at -6.5. DraftKings and FanDuel opened at -6.5 and lowered to -5.5 before rebounding to their original numbers overnight, while Caesars got to -5.5 from a high of -6.5. Sixty-one percent of the early wagers have backed the Steelers.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Dec. 7 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 44 degrees, 17% chance of precipitation, wind 11-mph SSW
Patriots-Steelers prediction made 12/4/2023 at 6:39 a.m. ET
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