Our New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers parlay for Thursday Night Football is based on the best NFL odds as we expect this game to be just about as ugly as every game involving New England lately.
The New England Patriots (2-10) should be focused on improving their NFL draft odds. As a result, it appears they are wisely starting Bailey Zappe despite his quarterbacking leading to zero points a week ago in last week's loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) are still in a playoff push and should be motivated after last week's loss to the Arizona Cardinals. But how good can they be with Mitch Trubisky starting at quarterback in place of the injured Kenny Pickett?
To accompany our Patriots vs. Steelers predictions and Patriots-Steelers NFL player props, here is our best Patriots vs. Steelers parlay for TNF (odds via our best NFL bettin g sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patriots vs. Steelers parlay for TNF
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Alternate total Under 27.5 (+134) ????
- Mitchell Trubisky Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110) ????
- Bailey Zappe Over 5.5 rushing yards (-110) ???
Combined odds: +636 via FanDuel
Not intended for use in MA
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SGP predictions for Patriots vs. Steelers
This game is going to be an epic disaster, so we might as well lean into it. We're going to get abnormally aggressive with the anchor leg of this SGP because I don't see the script playing out in which the game total of 30 combined points is in question.
These are two putrid offenses starting backup quarterbacks and both defenses play a hard-nosed style. The Steelers have allowed 24 points only once since Oct. 8 while the Patriots have not been involved in a game that saw more than 17 total points in more than a month. In that span, New England has scored 13 points. Total.
DraftKings offers Under 27.5 total points with +127 odds, while FanDuel boosts those odds slightly to +134 on the same 27.5-point line.
However, our C Jackson Cowart has taken a deep dive into how you should bet NFL backup QBs and suggests the Under may not be a lock.
Visit our Google News page and click “Follow” (?) for the latest odds, picks and news!
By taking the alternate game total Under, any predictions of positive offensive props will provide a solid boost to our overall parlay odds, but it's difficult to find contrarian plays that can reasonably hit while simultaneously seeing a low point total in the game.
Quarterback rushing yards feel like an obvious exception, though. Journeyman Mitch Trubisky is getting an opportunity to fill in for the injured Kenny Pickett. As a backup quarterback, Trubisky will do everything in his power to impress to potentially boost his longevity in the league.
A player with solid mobility, Trubisky has carried the ball three times in both games in which he saw meaningful playing time this season. In his early days with the Bears, Trubisky ran all the time. In a game where creativity is going to be necessary for either team to find even one touchdown, I predict Trubisky will be running a fair amount.
His line is 12.5 rushing yards at FanDuel, a slight value improvement over the 13.5-yard line at DraftKings.
Andrew Brennan makes his best Mitch Trubisky NFL player props here.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick sent Zappe out to speak with the media this week despite not officially naming him as the starter. Belichick's oddities played better when his team wasn't terrible. Whatever. Now, Zappe isn't quite as mobile as Trubisky by nature, but he's coming off the only notable rushing performance of his NFL career.
In a 6-0 loss to the Chargers, Zappe ran four times for 16 total yards. While that's an outlier relative to the rest of his rushing totals as a pro, Zappe needs only one defensive breakdown for a six-yard opening to clear this paltry 5.5-yard total at FanDuel.
Our Phil Wood makes his best Bailey Zappe NFL player props.
We like the +636 overall parlay odds provided by this unique combination. Both quarterbacks scampering for a few yards in a game that strains to see much offense is not too difficult to imagine.
We're playing this parlay at FanDuel because DraftKings does not presently offer a rushing total for Z appe.
Patriots-Steelers parlay picks made 12/7/2023 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
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