The New England Patriots (1-4) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (2-3) on Oct. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Las Vegas.
The Raiders are betting favorites in this Week 6 matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-120).
The Patriots vs. Raiders Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Raiders Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Raiders will win this Week 6 game with 65.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Raiders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this Week 6 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- DeVante Parker has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Jacobs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Jacobs has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Davante Adams has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Hunter Renfrow has hit the Longest Reception Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- Josh Jacobs has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 19% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.25 Units / 34% ROI)
Raiders Best Bets:
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 2Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have scored first in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots went 1-4 (-3.35 Units / -61.47% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -57.89% ROI
- Patriots are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Patriots are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI
Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders went 2-3 (-1.35 Units / -24.55% ROI).
- Raiders are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -20.51% ROI
- Raiders are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Raiders are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders
The Patriots are 1-15 (.062) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .333.
The Patriots are 1-4 (.200) this season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Patriots are winless (0-4) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .246.
The Patriots are winless (0-9) when having a TO margin of -2 or worse since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .124.
Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Raiders are winless (0-4) after a home win since the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Raiders are 4-6 (.400) after a loss as favorites since the 2021 season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .639.
The Raiders are 9-16 (.360) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .438.
The Raiders are 7-2 (.778) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .493.