The New England Patriots (1-2) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (2-1) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Green Bay.
The Packers are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Packers Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Packers Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Packers will win this Week 4 game with 79.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread this Week 4 with 62.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Packers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.20 Units / 54% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Aaron Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Randall Cobb has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.60 Units / 74% ROI)
Patriots Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Packers Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 0-2 (-2.1 Units / -65.63% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -28.17% ROI
- Patriots are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Patriots are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Packers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 15.79% ROI
- Packers are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Packers are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
The Patriots are 2-6 (.250) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2021 season — tied for 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.