Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions: Spread pick, over/under, best bets, player props for Week 1 NFL matchup

The New England Patriots head to South Beach to rekindle the rivalry with the Miami Dolphins, the 2022 edition. This is perhaps the most evenly matched Pats-Dolphins teams we've seen in a while. The expectations for Miami are high with new coach Mike McDaniel and WR Tyreek Hill in town. The Patriots it feels like business as usual with Bill Belichick and second-year QB Mac Jones has a chance to take another step.

Here, we'll take a look at our picks for best bets for Patriots vs. Dolphins in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Patriots vs. Dolphins odds

Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Point total: 46.5
Moneyline: MIA -180, NE +155

Our picks, best bets

Pick against the spread: Patriots +3.5

To be clear, I don't like this game at all in Week 1. NFL lines are tough enough. If you really have the desire to get action on this game, look at the props market. The spread is super tough. That's why we're leaning on the Pats as road underdogs. New England gets the hook at 3.5 points, so losing by a field goal gets us the win. That feels more advantageous than having the Dolphins -3.5 and losing that bet on Miami by 3. These teams are pretty evenly matched and I think a lot of us are overreacting to the Patriots struggles during the preseason. It's Belichick vs. a first-time head coach. Historically how does that play out? Dolphins -2.5 is -145 and makes some more sense.

Over/under: Under 46.5

If the Patriots do struggle on offense, then you're going to want the under. Also consider it's a new system for the Dolphins under McDaniel. Tua Tagovailoa is operating in a new offense with a new top target in Hill. There's the potential for some ugly football in this game. We could also see plenty of rushing and really no backs should instill much fear – Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Myles Gaskin, etc. These are more names for fantasy, not players who can break things open in a game. Plus, both defense should be capable. I'll lean under.

Player prop: Tua Tagovailoa over 10.5 rushing yards (-110)

Tua got nine attempts in two games against New England last season. Late in the year, he ran for 38 yards on five attempts against the Pats. Tagovailoa isn't known for his legs but he can use them. If plays break down and the Pats contain well, particularly against Hill, Tua may be forced to move. We also mentioned the Dolphins running backs above. Tua could get some designed runs based off the lack of talent in Miami's backfield. A couple scrambles and we likely get to the over.

  
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