The New England Patriots (0-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (0-0) on Sep. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm ET in Miami Gardens.
The Dolphins are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction for Week 1
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 1 NFL matchup with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Damien Harris has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Myles Gaskin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Mike Gesicki has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.15 Units / 40% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Patriots
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | +650 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +700 |
| Damien Harris | +800 |
| Chase Edmonds | +900 |
| Mike Gesicki | +1000 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Patriots
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | -125 |
| Damien Harris | -105 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +100 |
| Chase Edmonds | +125 |
| Hunter Henry | +125 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 |
| Hunter Henry | 31.5 -115 | 31.5 -115 |
| Tyreek Hill | 65.5 -115 | 65.5 -115 |
| Mike Gesicki | 29.5 -115 | 29.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -115 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -115 |
| Chase Edmonds | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Raheem Mostert | 37.5 -110 | 37.5 -115 |
| Damien Harris | 44.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 |
Patriots Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Dolphins Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+10.50 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 45% ROI)
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Patriots were 2-4 (.333) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .165.
The Patriots were undefeated (5-0) when not committing any turnovers last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .731.
The Patriots were 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .674.
The Patriots were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Dolphins were winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .198.
The Dolphins were winless (0-4) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.