New England marches into Denver on Sunday night, and we're offering our top Patriots vs. Broncos prediction based on the best NFL odds.
NFL schedule-makers were doing our families a real favor by scheduling this game on Christmas Eve, providing fans with a reason to skip football and instead spend quality time with their loved ones.
But just because you're unlikely to watch this contest between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos doesn't mean you can't make some money on it. And we're giving you an early Christmas present with our pick.
Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe had a poor showing in Week 15 against the Kansas City Chiefs, and sportsbooks are showing him very little respect this week as a result.
However, there's one book in particular that is especially low on Zappe, and we're attacking their rogue line.
To accompany our Week 16 NFL predictions, Russell Wilson player props, Patriots-Broncos SGP, and Patriots-Broncos NFL player prop picks, here is our best Patriots vs. Broncos prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patriots vs. Broncos prediction
Zappe looked terrible in Week 15 against the Chiefs, throwing for only 180 yards and tossing another ill-advised interception. However, the key piece of information there is that he still managed to clear this very low total we're being offered this week at BetRivers.
Let's not forget that it was just Week 14 in which Zappe carved up the Pittsburgh Steelers' shaky secondary to the tune of 240 passing yards and three touchdowns. Now, he gets an equally weak unit that was just torched by Jared Goff for 278 passing yards.
There are a couple of reasons why I like this bet enough to grade it as a four-star play.
First, we're getting a great number at BetRivers. Nearly all of our other best sports betting apps have set Zappe's passing yards total at 188.5. Pinnacle, one of the most respected trading teams in sports betting, opened at 186.5 before quickly moving to 188.5 on Thursday.
The second aspect of this pick that provides me with confidence is Zappe's projection. Across nine different projection models, Zappe's average passing yards projection is 207.35. With that number, we're getting roughly 35% positive expected value by playing the Over at BetRivers.
If you play the Over at one of our other best sportsbooks, such as FanDuel with its second-lowest 185.5 total at -114, you'd get 25% +EV on your bet. Even the standard -115 on 188.5 (available at DraftKings and BetMGM) is showing nea rly 20% +EV.
That's why Zappe's Over at BetRivers is a four-star bet for me, and why I placed 1.5 units on it myself.
For the best price on this prop, use our exclusive BetRivers bonus code: SBRBONUS!
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Patriots vs. Broncos best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 188.5 | 185.5 | 188.5 | 188.5 | 188.5 |
| -115 | -114 | -115 | -118 | -110 |
This bet continues to emphasize the importance of odds shopping. We're getting nearly 10 yards of buffer on the market-standard 188.5 by playing this at BetRivers.
However, as previously mentioned, even the worst price (Caesars' -118 on 188.5) is showing roughly 18% +EV. A bet at any of our other sites with the best sportsbook promos would serve as a three-star play for me, making this just a standard one-unit wager.
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Patriots vs. Broncos odds
Patriots vs. Broncos odds analysis
The Broncos ope ned at -5.5 to -6 favorites for this Sunday night game and are now -7 at all of our best live betting sites other than FanDuel, which still has them at -6.5. Head there if you're looking to back the home favorites.
For those who want to ride with the underdogs, BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars all offer +7 at -110 compared to DraftKings' -115. Roughly 56% of the spread action is on the Patriots.
As for the total, 78% of the action is on the Under, which helps explain why it's dropped two-plus points at our best sports betting sites. It opened around 36.5 and now sits in the 34 to 34.5 range.
Patriots vs. Broncos game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- How to watch: NFL Network
- Weather: 42 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds
Patriots vs. Broncos prediction made Friday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
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- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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