Patriots vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets: NFL, Week 16
Patriots vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets: NFL, Week 16

The New England Patriots (3-10) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (5-8) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this Week 16 matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under is 34.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this Week 16 game with 71.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 54.5% confidence.


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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this Week 16 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
  • DeVante Parker has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)

  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 17 games (+0.40 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)

  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 64% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots went 3-10 (-7.95 Units / -51.96% ROI).

  • Patriots are 3-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -41.16% ROI
  • Patriots are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
  • Patriots are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos went 5-8 (-3.8 Units / -24.52% ROI).

  • Broncos are 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 13.47% ROI
  • Broncos are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
  • Broncos are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Patriots are winless (0-4) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .390.

The Patriots are 1-6 (.143) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Patriots are winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .412.

The Patriots are winless (0-4) vs top 10 run offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Broncos are undefeated (4-0) when playing in cold weather this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Broncos are 1-6 (.143) when not forcing a fumble this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.

The Broncos are 6-1 (.857) when forcing at least one fumble this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .631.

The Broncos are 1-4 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .372.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

  
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