The New England Patriots (3-10) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (5-8) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Denver, CO.
The Broncos are betting favorites in this Week 16 matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under is 34.5 total points for the game.
Bet now on Broncos vs Patriots & all NFL games with BetMGM
Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this Week 16 game with 71.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 54.5% confidence.
Bet now on Broncos vs Patriots and all NFL games with BetMGM
Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this Week 16 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- DeVante Parker has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 17 games (+0.40 Units / 2% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 64% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots went 3-10 (-7.95 Units / -51.96% ROI).
- Patriots are 3-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -41.16% ROI
- Patriots are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
- Patriots are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / ROI
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos went 5-8 (-3.8 Units / -24.52% ROI).
- Broncos are 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 13.47% ROI
- Broncos are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Broncos are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Patriots are winless (0-4) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .390.
The Patriots are 1-6 (.143) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Patriots are winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .412.
The Patriots are winless (0-4) vs top 10 run offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Broncos are undefeated (4-0) when playing in cold weather this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Broncos are 1-6 (.143) when not forcing a fumble this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.
The Broncos are 6-1 (.857) when forcing at least one fumble this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .631.
The Broncos are 1-4 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .372.