Our Patriots vs. Broncos parlay predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps view Denver as a motivated team that realizes it is still in the mix for a playoff spot.
Sitting at 7-7, the Denver Broncos cling to a faint hope of reentering the AFC wild-card race. Yet, their tenuous chance hinges on their upcoming game. A loss at home to the struggling New England Patriots, currently at 3-11, would effectively extinguish any remaining aspirations for a postseason berth.
Could this be an opportunity in prime time for Sean Payton's team to show that last week's setback was merely a fluke?
To accompany our Patriots vs. Broncos prediction, here are our best Patriots vs. Broncos parlay predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patriots vs. Broncos parlay
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Broncos -7.5 (+100) ???
- Over 35.5 (-110) ????
- Russell Wilson Over 203.5 passing yards (-113) ???
Combined odds: +417 via FanDuel
Not intended for use in MA
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SGP predictions for Patriots vs. Broncos
Though this spread is a mark the Broncos have covered in only three of their wins this season, there's nothing in the data that suggests the Patriots are as much of a threat when it comes to covering a spread.
New England is a league-worst 3-10-1 ATS this season to go along with a 2-4 ATS record in road contests. Though Denver is merely 5-8-1 ATS on the season, we've at least seen evidence of the Broncos' ability to win in blowout fashion on a few occasions.
The Patriots have posted more respectable offensive numbers behind Bailey Zappe, but we've seen them lose by more than this margin four times this season.
Following last week's crushing defeat against the Detroit Lions, I look for Sean Payton to have his team sharp enough to keep their playoff hopes alive. FanDuel lists the Broncos at -7.5 with even odds while DraftKings lists Denver with -105 odds on the same line.
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Just six of the Broncos' 14 games have hit the Over this season, but only four of their contests have failed to clear the meager 35.5-point total on this matchup. New England games are just 5-9 on Overs, with five games failing to reach the total prescribed for this game.
Though we don't envision the Patriots keeping things within a touchdown, it's fair to recognize their scoring prowess has been different lately. They've posted scoring totals of 21 and 17 over the past two games behind Zappe as their starting quarterback.
Games with lofty totals have struggled to get there this NFL season, but things are beginning to move too far in the other direction with numbers like this one. FanDuel lists the game total at 35.5 with -110 odds on Over. That's a more favorable setup than the -112 odds listed on the same number from DraftKings.
We've seen Russell Wilson clear this passing line only six times this year, but he has thrown for 220-plus passing yards in consecutive games as he looks to guide the Broncos back into relevancy in the AFC playoff picture.
The Patriots are sturdy on defense but haven't necessarily been much of a shutdown pass unit. New England ranks 16th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 223.4 yards per game through the air. After Patrick Mahomes got them for 300-plus yards last weekend, the unit could be reeling in this road affair.
The differential in Wilson's passing prop yardage between DraftKings and FanDuel is substantial enough that it will determine which book we use for the SGP. At DraftKings, Wilson has 214.5 passing yards to clear. The 203.5-yard line at FanDuel – somehow with more favorable -113 odds than the -115 odds on the higher line at DraftKings – is the obvious choice.
Patriots-Broncos parlay picks made Sunday at 3:00 a.m. ET.
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