The New England Patriots (1-2-0) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (1-2-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Santa Clara, CA.
The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).
The Patriots vs. 49ers Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. 49ers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 68.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kendrick Bourne has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Christian McCaffrey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- George Kittle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jake Moody has hit the Field Goals Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Christian McCaffrey has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for 49ers vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy (SF) |
9.5 -110 | 9.5 -120 |
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+2.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 away games (+2.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have scored first in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.85 Units / 34% ROI)
49ers Best Bets:
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots art 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 36.67% ROI
- Patriots are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Patriots are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- 49ers are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -55.56% ROI
- 49ers are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- 49ers are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Patriots are 1-12 (.077) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The 49ers have intercepted 24 passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Patriots are winless (0-7) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .264.
The Patriots are 1-8 (.111) at home since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .548.
San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The 49ers are 11-5 (.688) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Patriots have turned the ball over 33 times since the 2023 season — T-4th-most in NFL.
The 49ers are 8-2 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Patriots has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 41 s since the 2023 season — 3rd-highest in NFL.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers had a third down conversion rate of 54.5% last week — T-4th-best in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 66.7% last week — worst in NFL.