Patriots Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for New England

The New England Patriots face an uphill battle in 2023 following a third-place division finish and the rest of the AFC East entering the campaign with Super Bowl aspirations. Can New England compete in football's toughest division? Check out our best New England Patriots futures predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Patriots are cursed with being a good team in a great division – their MLB counterparts, the Boston Red Sox, are suffering the same fate in baseball's American League East. This is important to remember when placing futures bets or even handicapping the Patriots' games throughout the season.

As such, our Patriots futures may look a bit contradictory, but that comes with the territory.

Can New England shock the football world and take down the juggernauts of the AFC East, or is it destined for a last-place finish?

Check out our 2023 New England Patriots betting preview based on the odds from our
best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Patriots betting preview 2023

This win total – and the aggressive juice on the Under – feels like an overreaction to Aaron Rodgers joining the New York Jets. The Patriots won eight games in 2022 and can certainly repeat that feat this season.

New England has very winnable games against the New Orleans Saints (home), Las Vegas Raiders (away), Washington Commanders (home), Indianapolis Colts (home), and Pittsburgh Steelers (away). The Patriots then need to win just three of a handful of toss-up games, including home against the Miami Dolphins, away to the New York Giants following a bye, home to the Los Angeles Chargers, home to the Kansas City Chiefs in mid-December, and home to the Jets in Week 18. 

However, the main reason I like this bet is because of the number at Caesars. The fact that we're getting significant plus-money odds for a team to simply repeat what it did last ye ar with an arguably tougher schedule is too juicy to pass up. Among our best sports betting apps, BetMGM is the book to avoid if you're looking to back the Over. 

Here's that bit of contradiction we discussed earlier. Sure, I think the Patriots are good enough to win eight-plus games. However, I don't think they're good enough to win more games than any other team in the division.

Bill Belichick is one of the NFL's all-time coaches, but the once-dynastic Patriots don't have enough talent to seriously challenge their AFC East rivals for a playoff spot. 

Mac Jones finished just Under this number with 2,997 yards last year, but that came in just 14 games. In 2021 while playing the full 17-game slate, Jones soared Over even DraftKings' listed total with 3,801 yards.

Additionally, Jones' projections also favor the Over. NumberFire projects him to finish with 3,809.32 passing yards, while ESPN's Mike Clay has Jones at 3,353 passing yards. However, we're going with the lower total for a couple of reasons.

First, Jones played second fiddle to No. 2 quarterback Bailey Zappe for a couple of games last season. If that happens again, getting nearly a games-worth of wiggle room with Caesars' total vs. DraftKings' could pay dividends. 

The Patriots lost leading receiver Jakobi Meyers but replaced him with Juju Smith-Schuster, and Jonnu Smith – who had an inefficient 9.1 yards per reception last season – is swapped out for the more explosive Mike Gesicki.

Between the fact that he managed nearly 3,000 yards in only 14 games last season and that the projections support a bounce-back season, we're riding with Jones' Over at Caesars.

The following two futures predictions are both bets on Rhamondre Stevenson, even if only one is specifically involving him. In 2022, eight running backs managed 10-plus rushing touchdowns. Stevenson scored only five rushing TDs last year, but he also split time with Damien Harris for a significant number of games.

Clay projects Stevenson for just six rushing scores, giving us some pause. However, NumberFire has him among the league leaders in the category with 9.41. If Belichick decides to finally unleash his top running back to the tune of 250-plus carries for the first time since 2016, Stevenson could c rush this number.

That year, LeGarrette Blount ran the ball 299 times for a monstrous 18 touchdowns. Tom Brady may not be around anymore to regularly get the team into those advantageous positions, but Stevenson can also make magic happen from anywhere on the field.

Head to DraftKings for this bet, as it's the only one of our best sports betting sites that offers a wide variety of specialty markets.

And here's our second Stevenson bet. This is a big number, but the talented back nearly hit it last year when he managed 172 rushing yards on only 19 carries vs. the Raiders. Additionally, he came close in another game, as he ran for 161 yards against the Detroit Lions.

The latter represented Stevenson's season high in carries with 25, a number I believe he could reach multiple times throughout the 2023 season. Harris is gone, and the Patriots a re going to need to rely on their most talented players if they hope to compete with their powerhouse division rivals.

I expect Stevenson to be leaned on in a handful of close games and grind out at least 175 rushing yards in at least one of them.

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSFULL | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario .

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

  
Read Full Article