Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs into battle against the Buffalo Bills for the seventh time since 2020 when they meet in the Divisional Round on Sunday night, and we offer our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes improved to 12-3 as a starter in the postseason with a 26-7 victory over the Miami Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend. And while this clash against the Buffalo Bills is his 16th postseason start, it will also be his first time playing in a true road environment, as his three Super Bowl appearances are the only playoff games Mahomes has ever played outside of Arrowhead Stadium.
With a win, Kansas City will make its sixth straight AFC Championship Game appearance. It would also be Mahomes' fifth straight season with multiple playoff wins (he's already the on ly quarterback since 1950 to achieve that feat in four straight campaigns). Additionally, Mahomes and Tom Brady are the only two quarterbacks with more than 10 playoff wins before the age of 30.
The Chiefs play a Bills team that won a wild-card game for the fourth straight season, beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17. The Bills have now won six consecutive games, and quarterback Josh Allen improved his playoff record to 5-4 (5-1 at home). Kansas City has eliminated Buffalo from the playoffs twice in the last three seasons.
In addition to our Chiefs-Bills prediction and all of our NFL Divisional Round predictions, here are our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for the Chiefs vs. Bills Divisional Round matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for the Divisional Round
- Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135 via bet365) ???
- Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 passing completions (-108 via FanDuel) ????
- Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 via bet365) ???
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Patrick Mahomes may be playing his first career postseason road game, but being on the road has never bothered him. He's 38-11 on the road in the regular season, which is the most wins from a quarterback since 1950 in their first 50 road starts, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
However, Mahomes doesn't boast the same offensive weapons in 2023-24 that he was surrounded with for much of his care er, as Rashee Rice and an aging Travis Kelce are his only two reliable receiving options. That's a significant reason why Mahomes has completed 69.7% of his passes away from home, and why the offense is averaging an underwhelming 20.8 points per game during road games this season.
The Chiefs finished the regular season 15th in scoring, their worst mark since Mahomes has been the starting quarterback. They were second in offensive penalties, which often stalled drives.
Mahomes is coming off a regular season with career lows in QBR (63), passing yards per game (261), and yards per attempt (7.0), and the Bills have allowed just one quarterback in the last six games to throw for multiple touchdowns. That span includes games against Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa (in the warm weather of Miami). That makes the Under here valuable in what could be another low-scoring affair. The two teams combined for 37 points during a 20-17 Bil ls win in Week 14.
FanDuel is on the low end with +106 odds to back Mahomes to throw for one or fewer touchdowns, so bet365 offers great value in comparison.
Also, bet365 is offering $25 in bonus bets if you wager $50 on NFL SGPs Saturday. Offer excludes Ontario.
We may not expect Mahomes to throw for multiple touchdowns, but he should be able to dink and dunk his way down the field against a compromised Bills defense.
Buffalo's Terrel Bernard (ankle), Taron Johnson (concussion), Taylor Rapp (calf), and Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) are all questionable, and those defenders would likely have lined up opposite Kelce at some point if healthy. Those issues also don't account for the season-ending injury to Pro Bowl linebacker Matt Milano, who was so vital when manning the middle of the field.
Mahomes completed nine of 14 passes for 90 yards (6.0 yards per attempt) between the numbers when these teams met in Week 14, according to Sharp Football Analysis. And he's coming off a week when he torched the Dolphins for a 73.9% completion percentage and 8.9 yards per attempt when throwing between the numbers. Miami's defense was similarly banged up with several defensive starters out, so Andy Reid's game plan should mirror the wild-card round, and Mahomes would reap the benefits in terms of completions as a result.
The value at FanDuel to back the Over is excellent, as some of our other best sports betting sites like BetMGM are juiced to -135 to back the Over at the same number.
Patrick Mahomes' 105.7 passer rating is the highest in the playoffs among active quarterbacks (minimum 100 attempts), according to the NFL on CBS. Additionally, he's tied for the most playoff games with four total touchdowns and zero interceptions (four ), and his 88.3 QBR was the fourth-highest among quarterbacks from Wild Card Weekend. However, Mahomes accumulated a lot of those statistics with offenses that were much more explosive than the Chiefs' 2023 unit, and he's thrown eight interceptions away from Arrowhead Stadium this campaign
Mahomes is 2-0 with a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio over two playoff starts against the Bills. He's completed 76% of his pass attempts while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, and his team is averaging 40.0 points per game. However, we expect the Bills to force Mahomes into his regular-season numbers against them, and he posted a 1-3 record, and a 7-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 64% of his passes and averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.
The Bills have allowed a 49 QBR in 2023-24 (sixth-best). While they may be banged up on the second level, the team is still capable of forcing Mahomes into a mistake. They pre ssured him on 37.8% of dropbacks in Week 14, and rank eighth overall in pressure rate (38.6%).
There's not much separating the best live betting sites from a value perspective, but BetRivers is on the high end of this market with -125 odds.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 1/19/2023 at 4:08 p.m. ET.
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