As the NFL's leading passer, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady soared past his projected total with 5,316 passing yards last season. We have created a small cheat sheet containing all of this year's passing yardage odds.
Several sportsbooks have posted season-long totals on player props in advance of the NFL season. To see if there are any significant gaps between the projections and the betting markets, I decided to cross-reference these totals with the projections from Fantasy Pros, ESPN, and Pro Football Focus.
The following are some of the players who stand out to me after comparing their projections to their player prop totals for the upcoming season.
2022 NFL Passing Yards Lines
| Player | Projections via Fantasy Pros, ESPN and PFF | Total via DraftKings Sportsbook | Difference |
| Josh Allen | 4,418 | 4400.5 | -17.5 |
| Tom Brady | 4,819 | 4650.5 | -168.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4,747 | 4650.5 | -96.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4,560 | 4500.5 | -59.5 |
| Justin Herbert | 4,550 | 4700.5 | +150.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 4,556 | 4350.5 | -205.5 |
| Joe Burrow | 4,473 | 4450.5 | +22.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4,315 | 4050.5 | -264.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4,318 | 4200.5 | -117.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4,036 | 3850.5 | -185.5 |
| Derek Carr | 4,326 | 4450.5 | +124.5 |
| Davis Mills | 3,966 | 3600.5 | -365.5 |
| Matt Ryan | 3,963 | 3900.5 | -62.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4,001 | 4000.5 | -0.5 |
| Carson Wentz | 3,868 | 3500.5 | -367.5 |
| Jared Goff | 3,942 | 3700.5 | -241.5 |
| Kyler Murray | 4,170 | 4050.5 | -119.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3,693 | 3550.5 | -142.5 |
| Daniel Jones | 3,828 | 3550.5 | -277.5 |
| Mac Jones | 3,934 | 3950.5 | +16.5 |
| Russell Wilson | 4,050 | 4100.5 | +50.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3,678 | 3550.5 | -127.5 |
| Trey Lance | 3,662 | 3500.5 | -161.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3,746 | 3600.5 | -145.5 | Justin Fields | 3,614 | 3350.5 | -263.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3,544 | 3700.5 | +156.5 |
Total Passing Yards: Best Bets
- Mills Over 3450.5 yards (-112 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
When reviewing the cheat sheet, Davis Mills immediately stands out. Based on the projections, he is expected to throw for 365.5 more yards than his total at DraftKings Sportsbook, but it gets even better. There is an even lower total on Mills at FanDuel, which is listed at 3450.5 yards. As a result, there is a difference of 515.5 yards between his projection and his player prop.