The Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers head to Boston with the series tied at one, as we offer our analysis and prediction for Friday's Panthers-Bruins Game 3 based on the best NHL odds.
The Boston Bruins (47-20-15) versus Florida Panthers (52-24-6) series has been as unpredictable as a spring break in Mexico for of-age teenagers. After a resounding 6-1 win in Game 2, bouncing back from a series-opening 5-1 loss, the Panthers head to Beantown for Game 3 as the favorites at our best sports betting sites. Puck drop is set for 7 p.m. ET (TNT) from TD Garden in Boston, Mass. on Friday.
With the Bruins currently holding the third-longest Stanley Cup odds among the remaining teams, the Panthers are positioned near the top, alongside the New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche.
Accompanying our Rangers vs. Hurricanes predictions and our Avalanche vs . Stars predictions, here's our Panthers vs. Bruins prediction and NHL pick (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Panthers vs. Bruins Game 3 expert picks
- Over 5.5 goals (-105 via Betway) ????
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Panthers vs. Bruins predictions for Friday
In Game 2, animosity spilled over like the head of a poorly poured Guinness. The contest got out of hand when the score did, spearheading more donnybrooks, scrums, and verbal jousting than a family reunion gone wrong. The throwback to the good old days even included a scrap between Matthew Tkachuk and David Pastrnak, in which the Panthers' primed predator cooked Pasta al dente. While Pastrnak should be applauded for stepping up, it's never a promising sign to be seen asking your head coach for permission before dropping the gloves.
The Bruins' frustration was as much a projection of their own languid play. In Game 1, the Bruins surfed the monstrous wave of adrenaline and emotional high from their Game 7 overtime win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Like a partygoer after a weeklong binge, Jim Montgomery's team came crashing back to earth in Game 2. Betway offers -105 odds for Over 5.5 goals, which has an implied probability of 51.22%. A winning $10 wager pays a profit of $9.52.
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The lopsided scores in Games 1 and 2 resulted in Over 5.5 goals.
Seeing both games in Florida result in blowouts, at least on the surface level, was more surprising than witnessing Brad Marchand lick Ryan Callahan in the second round of the 2017-18 playoffs. However, after diving deeper, these two heated Atlantic Division rivals are not only accustomed to hitting the Over as much as each other in the playoffs but also to one-sided affairs.
Eight consecutive playoff games between the Bruins and Panthers had at least six goals, with six going Over 6.5. Only one of the last nine contests, Game 1 of the 2022-23 series, went Under 5.5 goals.
The current string of playoff Overs contradicts their head-to-heads in the regular season, in which three of four went Under 5.5 goals. The playoff trend is even more perplexing, considering both had top-five defenses in the regular season.
Their disproportionate number of lopsided playoff games is even more of a head-scratcher. Only two of the last nine playoff encounters between the B's and Panthers were decided by one goal, both of which went to overtime. Three games were decided by two goals, only one of which had an empty-netter. That phenomenon can only continue for so long, so expect a close Game 3, particularly as three of their four regular-season battles were decided by a goal.
Regarding netminders, Jeremy Swayman is the talk of the NHL playoffs. While Igor Shesterkin would contest that assertion, nobody has given his team a chance to win as much as Swayman, evinced by his otherworldly 12.7 goals saved above expected. In Game 2, he allowed more than two goals for the first time in eight playoff starts.
Montgomery swiftly and astutely pulled Swayman after he allowed the fourth goal early in the third period. It looked li ke Montgomery assured Swayman he'd be back between the pipes for Friday's Game 3, merely offering his overworked netminder a chance to take a deep breath for the first time in about two weeks.
But does Florida have the master key to unlock the NHL's supreme gatekeeper? The Panthers scored three goals on Swayman in his only start against them in the regular season and lit the lamp four times in Game 7 of last year's first round.
While Swayman should enjoy a bounce-back performance in Game 3, it might not be enough to prevent the Panthers from scoring at least three on him for the fourth time in the last five attempts.
Panthers vs. Bruins Game 3 info & odds
- When: Friday, May 10
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: TD Garden, Boston
- How to watch: TNT, Sportsnet
- Favorite: Panthers (-130 via Betway)
Panthers-Bruins predictions made Friday at 10 a.m. ET.
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