Padres vs Twins Odds
Thursday, May 111:10 p.m. ETMLB.TV
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 8-120 / -102 | -1.5+136 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +102 | 8-120 / -102 | +1.5-164 |
Odds via'FanDuel.'Get up-to-the-minute'MLB odds here.
After taking a dramatic extra-inning a ffair against the Padres at home on Wednesday night, the Twins will look for a long-awaited series win in the rubber game on Thursday. With Bailey Ober on the hill, does the home side have a chance here?Let's break it all down in our Padres vs. Twins preview and prediction.Also, be sure to check out our MLB Betting Hub'for more previews from today's slate of games.
The Padres will once again turn to Yu Darvish on Thursday, and the 36-year-old has more or less been a carbon copy of the pitcher we've grown accustomed to seeing over the past few years. Darvish has rescued his strikeout rate, bringing it back up from 25.6% to 27.2% so far this season, and he's posted a very respectable 3.19 ERA with a 3.13 xERA.In fact, I'd go as far as saying Darvish hasn't looked this good in three years. His barrel rate is down to a low 6.5%, and his expected batting average is just .199 – the second-lowest ever tracked by Statcast.Sure , he's walking more batters this year, but with these peripherals, I don't really care. Walks were the lone thing saving Darvish from worse numbers in years past and the lone reason his supporters had hope. Now, Darvish is back to dominating by missing more bats and inducing weak contact.Offensively, things are looking up for the Padres. They're now up to 15th in wRC+ on the season and have slashed .265/.363/.440 in the past two weeks, which are all top-10 marks.They continue to struggle with a strikeout in 23.1% of their plate appearances, but they also continue to walk at a ridiculously high clip, ranking second in the league at 11% and strolling to first in 12.9% of plate appearances in the last two weeks.
Minnesota will counter here with Bailey Ober, a 27-year-old right-h ander who's pitched to a solid 3.51 ERA in 166.2 big-league innings over the past three seasons. He's made just three starts in 2023, but he's yielded just two runs on 10 hits in 18.1 innings.Ober's rolling into this one with a low 26.1% hard-hit rate and a 2.9% barrel rate, but he's well over the league average in those departments for his career.So, has anything changed with Ober?Well, his expected batting average is incredibly low at .209, but it's not as if he's turned himself into a different pitcher. He's still getting outs via the fly ball, and he's actually induced slightly more this season than he has in his career. His strikeout numbers look relatively the same, though he's actually walked more batters than normal.It's safe to say Ober's a fly-ball pitcher who's managed this season to pitch more successfully to contact – but he's also faced the Nationals, Royals and Guardians thus far.Minnesota is hurting on offense, ranking 25th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a high 25.9% strikeout rate, though it has walked in 11.6% of plate appearances. It had mustered up just five runs in the last four games prior to a 4-3 victory over the Padres on Wednesday.
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