The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Surprise.
The Royals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Royals Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Padres are 4-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 9-1 ATS.
Padres vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+1.15 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sebastian Rivero has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+0.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+18.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 108 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+12.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -9.26% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -30.19% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -20.65% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 15.61% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 9-1 against the Run Line (+9.15 Units / 66.07% ROI).
- 9-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 72.05% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.85 Units / 43.89% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -50.45% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jay Groome is making his MLB debut today.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles had a strike rate of just 60% (540/893) in two strike counts last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.