The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-120) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Padres are 46-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 37-45 ATS.

Padres vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 5-6, 3.44 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Josh Winckowski 1-1, 3.27 ERA

Padres vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 41 away games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 94% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 69% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 69% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+11.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 45-42 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 5.43% ROI).

• 46-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.59% ROI
• 47-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 4.63% ROI
• 39-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -13.53% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 37-45 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -12.96% ROI).

• 43-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• 39-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -3.62% ROI
• 39-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -4.13% ROI

Red Sox vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .113 (11-for-97) against Matt Waldron versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (20/108) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .075 (3-for-40) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .161 (18-for-112) against Matt Waldron this month (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .281 (207-for-737) against Josh Winckowski since the 2022 season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — fourth Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (426/820) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has struck out just 13% (9/67) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — ninth Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (708/1,417) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

  
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