The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Saturday, June 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Padres are 45-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 37-44 ATS.

Padres vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 5-5, 3.76 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 7-5, 2.17 ERA

Padres vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 away games (+13.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 94% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.65 Units / 64% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.65 Units / 62% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+5.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 44-42 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 4.56% ROI).

• 45-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -3.68% ROI
• 46-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.4 Units / 3.62% ROI
• 39-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.95 Units / -12.53% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 37-44 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -12.16% ROI).

• 43-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 1.42% ROI
• 38-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -4.79% ROI
• 39-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -2.96% ROI

Red Sox vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.9 MPH on non-fastballs since last season (224 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 87.4

Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.7 MPH this season (205 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.8

Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH since last season (468 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 89.2

Michael King has struck out 30% (61/200) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 85th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .311 (222 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .483 — 100th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .219 (30 Total Bases / 137 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 — 100th Percentile.

12 of Tanner Houck’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (28/41) against Tanner Houck this month (4 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

  
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