The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-140) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35pm EDT in Arlington, TX.

This season, the Padres are 47-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 40-46 ATS.

Padres vs Rangers Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 6-5, 3.63 ERA
• Rangers starting pitcher: Max Scherzer 1-1, 1.74 ERA

Padres vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Josh H. Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+22.10 Units / 246% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.95 Units / 37% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.75 Units / 38% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
• Leody Taveras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+12.35 Units / 26% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 44 away games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 49% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 62% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)

Rangers Best Bets Today:

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+16.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 46-44 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 3.46% ROI).

• 47-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -3.29% ROI
• 48-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 3.36% ROI
• 41-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -12.26% ROI

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 40-46 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -10% ROI).

• 39-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -14.23% ROI
• 33-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.8 Units / -21.98% ROI
• 49-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.9 Units / 13.64% ROI

Rangers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rangers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rangers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Rangers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .426 (20-for-47) against Michael King on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — seventh Percentile.

Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.3 MPH since the 2022 season (592 balls in play) — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 88.9

Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on non-fastballs since the 2022 season (275 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 87.1

Hitters have swung at 59% of Michael King’s pitches in the zone (969/1,642) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.

Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (20/72) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.5 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (132 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 89.9

Opponents are hitting just .247 (18-for-73) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .344 — 99th Percentile.

Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (18/65) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

  
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