The San Diego Padres (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Thursday, August 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Padres are 63-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 63-50 ATS.

Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-6, 4.64 ERA
• Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA

Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 44 games (+41.00 Units / 93% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+16.25 Units / 51% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.95 Units / 51% ROI)
• Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+11.55 Units / 79% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 40 games (+20.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+15.40 Units / 49% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 games at home (+12.00 Units / 57% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 56 away games (+18.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 37% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 69 games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 69 games (+5.95 Units / 8% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 60-55 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 4.89% ROI).

• 63-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 1% ROI
• 61-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 2.59% ROI
• 53-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.75 Units / -11.54% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 63-50 against the Run Line (+10.61 Units / 7.25% ROI).

• 56-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -1.64% ROI
• 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -8.61% ROI
• 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.58 Units / 0.47% ROI

Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The last hit on a Randy Vasquez cutter was June 22nd. Hitters are 0 for their last 17 in ABs ending on his cutter. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents are hitting .412 (21-for-51) against Randy Vasquez’s inside fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .255 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (36/255) against Randy Vasquez this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .312 (95-for-304) against Randy Vasquez this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Ortiz has a strikeout rate of just 35% (65 SO in 185 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.

Luis Ortiz has struck out just 17% (34/199) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 12th lowest among among 104 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 11th Percentile.

Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (130/224) against Luis Ortiz on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Luis Ortiz allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.4 MPH (287 batted balls) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — 0 Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

  
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