The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Tuesday, June 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Padres are 37-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 40-32 ATS.

Padres vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 5-4, 3.60 ERA
• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 8-3, 3.51 ERA

Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+22.00 Units / 440% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+18.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 48 games (+17.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+15.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kyle Higashioka has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+16.10 Units / 41% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+15.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+13.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.35 Units / 39% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 away games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.60 Units / 73% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 37 away games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 54 games (+21.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 57 games (+20.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 55 games (+20.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 55 games (+18.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 28 games at home (+18.15 Units / 34% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 36-40 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -1.85% ROI).

• 37-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.8 Units / -10.81% ROI
• 38-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -2.76% ROI
• 37-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -5.76% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 40-32 against the Run Line (+8 Units / 9.19% ROI).

• 48-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.85 Units / 11.81% ROI
• 32-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -8.27% ROI
• 35-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.57% ROI

Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Michael King has recorded 18 of his 38 strikeouts (47%) vs left-handed batters with his changeup this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.

Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of just .185 (34 Total Bases / 184 ABs) on changeups since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .125 (7-for-56) against Michael King with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.

Michael King has a strikeout rate of 38% (24 SO in 63 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (423/1,322) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (89/258) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .128 (14 GB hits out of 109 GBs) against Aaron Nola this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .303 — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

  
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