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The San Diego Padres (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Thursday, July 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Padres are 54-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 57-45 ATS.
Padres vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 9-8, 3.77 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 2-9, 5.39 ERA
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 63.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 33 games (+34.50 Units / 105% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.40 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+15.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+11.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 away games (+16.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.25 Units / 57% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 94 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 94 games (+9.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+5.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 53-51 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 2.85% ROI).
- 54-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -4.15% ROI
- 54-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.53% ROI
- 49-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.8 Units / -9.35% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 57-45 against the Run Line (+5.68 Units / 4.27% ROI).
- 47-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 6.44% ROI
- 48-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -5.2% ROI
- 49-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.32 Units / -3.83% ROI
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Ha-seong Kim (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Bryce Johnson (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 |
Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (195/523) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 48% (21 SO in 44 PAs) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 60% of the time (2,609/4,317) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .307 (131-for-427) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .312 (213-for-682) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .380 (179 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .491 (335 Total Bases / 682 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — fourth Percentile.