The San Diego Padres (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Thursday, July 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.

This season, the Padres are 54-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 57-45 ATS.

Padres vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 9-8, 3.77 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 2-9, 5.39 ERA

Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 63.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 33 games (+34.50 Units / 105% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.40 Units / 91% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+15.95 Units / 86% ROI)
• Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 53% ROI)
• Trey Lipscomb has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.85 Units / 55% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+11.85 Units / 56% ROI)
• Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 away games (+16.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.25 Units / 35% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.25 Units / 57% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 94 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 94 games (+9.60 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+5.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.75 Units / 19% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 53-51 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 2.85% ROI).

• 54-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -4.15% ROI
• 54-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.53% ROI
• 49-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.8 Units / -9.35% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 57-45 against the Run Line (+5.68 Units / 4.27% ROI).

• 47-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 6.44% ROI
• 48-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -5.2% ROI
• 49-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.32 Units / -3.83% ROI

Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (195/523) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 48% (21 SO in 44 PAs) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 60% of the time (2,609/4,317) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .307 (131-for-427) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .312 (213-for-682) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .380 (179 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .491 (335 Total Bases / 682 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — fourth Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

  
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