The San Diego Padres (-130) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+110) on Sunday, June 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Padres are 37-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 32-37 ATS.

Padres vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 6-5, 3.36 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 1-3, 3.51 ERA

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+23.00 Units / 575% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+18.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+15.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+13.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 61% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+10.50 Units / 55% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games at home (+9.20 Units / 48% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+9.20 Units / 24% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.55 Units / 92% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 away games (+2.70 Units / 7% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.55 Units / 16% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 36-38 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.44% ROI).

• 37-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -8.56% ROI
• 36-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -5.31% ROI
• 37-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -3.29% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 32-37 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -8.42% ROI).

• 32-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -9.27% ROI
• 33-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -3.09% ROI
• 32-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -5.01% ROI

Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

10 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 47% of the time (659/1,394) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 59% of the time (1,438/2,423) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 55% of the time (124/227) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .454 (141 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.

The average home run distance against Tylor Megill since the 2022 season is 415.0 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 398.2

Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (365/678) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .395 (151-for-382) against Tylor Megill in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

  
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